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July 5, 2007
Fooled By Randomness
A colleague loaned me Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb a couple weeks ago. I started it on finishing Breaking the Limit, and finished it last night before retiring.
Perhaps because I understand statistics, and notions like expected value and the monte carlo method, I didn't find the book as remarkable as it's reputation.
His major point is that we (humans) are not built for handling randomness, and as a result confuse chance with skill, noise with signal, and make make unreasonable decisions.
At points, I found it difficult to get past the authors attitude to his message; he mixes interesting insight with unnecessary vitriol - mostly directed against journalists and MBA holders - and unabashed arrogance.
It's an interesting - albeit rambling - read from an academic perspective but certainly not the book to pick up if you're looking for direct investment advice.
I wish I could strongly recommend it - as a few of his core points are absolutely valuable for those involved in "business" or "markets" to understand, but finding the needles in his haystack is more effort than many are willing to invest in a "light read."
If you do read (or have read) it, I'm curious to hear your reactions.
Posted by dberger at July 5, 2007 6:14 AM